Market Regime
Markets alternate between calm uptrends (“risk-on”) and stressed downtrends (“risk-off”). This labels the PSE's history from three transparent signals of a reconstructed composite index — trend vs. its 200-day average, drawdown from the peak, and 30-day volatility. A descriptive read of where the market has been, not a forecast.
Reconstructed cap-weighted composite (indexed to 100 at the series start) — a PSEi-like proxy, not the official index. Background shading is the detected regime.
How much of the tracked history sat in each regime, and the composite's average daily move while there. Over this window the market was largely in a recovery uptrend, so the regimes separate more by trend and volatility than by the sign of returns — but risk-on still shows the strongest daily drift.
Risk-off: the index is below its 200-day average AND either down more than 10% from its peak or showing above-median 30-day volatility. Risk-on: above the 200-day average, within 5% of the peak, and below-median volatility. Neutral: everything in between.
Labels are 5-day majority-smoothed to avoid single-day flip-flops. Rule-based and fully inspectable — no machine-learning black box — so every classification traces to the three signals above.
Delayed / end-of-day data, recomputed by PSEye. A descriptive classification of past market conditions — not a forecast, market-timing signal, or financial advice.